Michael Colunga (7 Apr 2011)
"RE:  Outstanding analysis of Elenin's orbit, Brother Kevin!"

 
Hello, John and Doves,
 
Brother Kevin, I know that we have disagreed in the past.  I apologize for any and all incivility.
 
Having said that, I think your analysis is absolutely outstanding.  Drawings can be illusory.
 
Clearly, 1 AU = 93 million miles.  The Moon's distance to the Earth is about 1/4 million miles,
or 0.0027 AU, approximately.
 
At closest approach, Elenin is calculated to be a full 0.23 AU from Earth (Perigee).
 
(0.23 AU) divided by (0.0027AU) equals 85.2, which rounds to 90, with one significant figure.
 
Conclusion:  Elenin will not come closer than about ninety times the average Earth-Moon distance.
 
W^5 = WWWWW = Which Was What We Wanted.
 
End of story.
 
Thanks again, Brother Kevin for your mature patience in all things.
 
In HaShem,
Mike C.
_________________________________________________________________________________
Kevin Heckle (6 Apr 2011)
"David Robinson RE: Good ELENIN Response"


David,
Good response to R.Belanger on the Elenin perigee (found here).  http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/apr2011/davidr45.htm
 
I would add that the diagram is a two-dimensional representation.  Elenin's orbital path currently is inclined to our own orbital plane by about 1.84 degrees or so, adding the 3rd dimension.  If you notice the small triangle in the diagram, it represents the ascending node.  Elenin comes in from beneath our orbital plane, crosses it at that ascending node and then increases up away from our orbital plane.  The only place any object can intersect the diameter of our planet is if it crosses within distance of the diameter of our planet, along the earth's orbital plane and orbital path.  If that little triangle was on the eliptic of our orbit, there would be cause for alarm depending on the regularity of Elenin's orbit.  However, Elenin crosses Earth's orbital plane somewhere between Mercury and Venus, closer to Mercury I believe .  This makes it impossible for it to hit Earth on that current trajectory. 
 
Even at perigee (closest approach to Earth's center), the cometary object will be almost a quarter of the distance (.234 AU) from Earth to the sun.  To give some perspective on that distance, the moon is .0026 AU from Earth.  Elenin's closest approach to Earth will be 90 times the distance of the Earth-Moon distance, based on the current data. 
 
Even Venus at its closest approaches to Earth (.27 AU from Earth at inferior conjunction) would only be slightly farther away than Elenin at perigee.
 
In Christ,
Kevin Heckle