John and Doves,
Brother Kevin, I know that we have disagreed in the
past. I apologize for any and all incivility.
said that, I think your analysis is absolutely outstanding. Drawings can
Clearly, 1 AU = 93 million miles. The Moon's
distance to the Earth is about 1/4 million miles,
0.0027 AU, approximately.
closest approach, Elenin is calculated to be a full 0.23 AU from Earth
AU) divided by (0.0027AU) equals 85.2, which rounds to 90, with one significant
Conclusion: Elenin will not come closer than
about ninety times the average Earth-Moon distance.
WWWWW = Which Was What We Wanted.
again, Brother Kevin for your mature patience in all things.
Kevin Heckle (6 Apr
"David Robinson RE: Good ELENIN
I would add that the diagram is a two-dimensional representation.
Elenin's orbital path currently is inclined to our own orbital plane by
about 1.84 degrees or so, adding the 3rd dimension. If you notice the
small triangle in the diagram, it represents the ascending node.
Elenin comes in from beneath our orbital plane, crosses it at that ascending
node and then increases up away from our orbital plane. The only place
any object can intersect the diameter of our planet is if it crosses within
distance of the diameter of our planet, along the earth's orbital plane
and orbital path. If that little triangle was on the eliptic of our
orbit, there would be cause for alarm depending on the regularity of Elenin's
orbit. However, Elenin crosses Earth's orbital plane somewhere
between Mercury and Venus, closer to Mercury I believe . This makes it
impossible for it to hit Earth on that current trajectory.
Even at perigee (closest approach to Earth's center), the cometary object
will be almost a quarter of the distance (.234 AU) from Earth to the
sun. To give some perspective on that distance, the moon is .0026 AU
from Earth. Elenin's closest approach to
Earth will be 90 times the distance of the Earth-Moon distance,
based on the current data.
Even Venus at its closest approaches to Earth (.27 AU from Earth at
inferior conjunction) would only be slightly farther away than Elenin at