Shanthini (8 Apr 2008)
"Economic Forecast"


 

Like coming events casting their shadows, these news don’t project a good image at all....

 

 

·       US jobless data worse than feared

US employers shed 80,000 jobs in March, Labor Department figures have shown, in the latest sign that the US economy may be falling into recession.

The decline was the third monthly drop in succession, and worse than market expectations of a 60,000 reduction  Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7330619.stm

 

·       Wall Street brokerages borrowing $38.1 billion a day from Federal Reserve  http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080403/BUSINESS07/80403058

 

·       Goodbye to the dollar?

By Kenneth Rogoff 

(The writer is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.)

Over the past six years, the value of the trade-weighted dollar has fallen by more than a quarter, as the US has continued to rack up historically unprecedented trade deficits. With a soft economy, a badly compromised financial system, and serious concerns about rising inflation, the long-term dollar trend is downward, however the current crisis ends. And it is not over.

The Federal Reserve's bailout of the financial system is unlikely to stand up unless banks find fresh capital, and lots of it. Ultra-rich sovereign wealth funds have the cash to rescue US banks. But they are unlikely to want to do so at this point, even if the US political system allowed it. Instead, as the credit crunch and housing price decline continue, an epic mortgage bailout appears increasingly likely, possibly costing US taxpayers a trillion dollars or more. The problem is that after so many years of miserable returns on dollar assets, will global investors really be willing to absorb another trillion dollars in US debt at anything near current interest rates and exchange rates?

Full story

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/080406/International/international00010.html

 

 

 

·       Skybus Ends Service, Third Airline to Fold This Week  April 5, 2008 15:44 EDT http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=ap5QHqDdrbBo&pid=20601103

 

 

·       Railcars idle as economy falters  The cars parked are the type that haul cargo from ships on the coast to points inland, mainly imported goods — an area that’s starting to slow down due to the weak economy. Analysts say transportation usually is among the first sectors to show signs of a downturn in the economy and with Americans feeling pinched — employers eliminated 63,000 jobs last month amid declining consumer confidence — it could be a while before the idle cars move.

‘‘If you take a look at transportation, both trucking and rail, you will see that things started softening last summer,’’ said Arnold Maltz, associate professor of supply-chain management at Arizona State University. ‘‘The reason you are seeing all those cars parked is that the consumer economy translates into slower imports.’’   Full story in
http://www.helenair.com/articles/2008/04/04/top/top/50lo_080404_railcars.txt

 

·       232,000 US Jobs Have Already Vanished In 2008