Korea: The Coming Moment of Truth for Regimes in Both Koreas
Cho Gab-je The Investigative Reporter's World  | 04/24/05 | Cho Gab-je
 

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    The Coming Moment of Truth for Regimes in Both Koreas
 
A recent defector, who  used to be a N. Korean intelligence agent, told me, "N. Korean people are like a powder-keg. Once catching fire,  they will explode in an instant. Kim Jong-il's regime would not go down gradually. (N. Korea would) go like Romania, and (Kim Jong-il would) die like Ceausescu. Once U.N. decides to impose economic sanction, it is quite likely that power struggle would erupt in the inner circle of Kim's regime. Many close associates of Kim no longer want to follow him to death. They are going their separate way to survive. Ordinary N. Koreans are also readying themselves for the coming new era. That is why they are in the all-out rush to making money.  The economic sanction, while N. Koreans are so obsessed with money, would have great impact."

If U.N. Security Council imposes the economic sanction against N. Korea, Roh Moo-hyun regime of S. Korea, along with Kim Jong-il, will have their moment of truth. They have to decide whether they continue to coddle Kim Jong-il regime, turning against the international community and betraying the spirit of (S. Korean) constitution, or get in line with the international community. U.N.'s sanction against N. Korea would demand the life-and-death choice against both regimes in Korean Peninsula. In my prediction, the moment would be sometime next year.

The pretension that mindless rhetoric would do something to the crisis is fast running of time. Roh's regime lost power to influence the N. Korean crisis, because it would like to veer out of S. Korean-U.S. alliance. If S. Korea bolts out of the alliance or  weakens it, neither Japan nor China nor N. Korea would view S. Korea as a player with a casting vote, but as a non-entity. Cracks in the alliance would lead to the cracks among (S. Korean) public opinion, and the clout of Roh's regime will be diminished on both domestic and international front. The power comes from unity(of allies) not division.
 
 
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